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Arman Gohar vs Havadar — Azadegan League 2018

Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
FT
2 – 1
Havadar
Havadar
1/4/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Arman Gohar42%
×Draw31%
Havadar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arman Gohar
1.11
Havadar
0.83

Arman Gohar creates 34% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

creates per match

Arman Gohar
1.54
Havadar
0.78

allows per match

Arman Gohar
0.88
Havadar
0.69

finishing

Arman Gohar+0.00on par
Havadar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arman Gohar ↓

Havadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Arman Gohar or draw
73%
Arman Gohar or Havadar
69%
Draw or Havadar
58%

Winning margin

Arman Gohar wins by 2+
17%
Havadar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arman Gohar 1+ goals
67%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
30%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
10%
Havadar 1+ goals
56%
Havadar 2+ goals
20%
Havadar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
61%
Havadar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arman Gohar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 67 matches

Havadar away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arman Gohar attack 1.54 + Havadar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.11

Havadar attack 0.78 + Arman Gohar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arman Gohar scores more
42%
level
31%
Havadar scores more
27%

Arman Gohar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arman Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Arman Gohar 2–1 Havadar

Arman Gohar beat Havadar 2-1 in Azadegan League on January 4, 2021.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium in Sirjan.