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Haugesund W vs Fortuna Ålesund W — Toppserien 2021

Haugesund W
Haugesund W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
4/1/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 3Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Haugesund W20%
×Draw18%
Fortuna Ålesund W62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund W
1.45
Fortuna Ålesund W
2.62

Fortuna Ålesund W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Haugesund W
1.50
Fortuna Ålesund W
2.40

allows per match

Haugesund W
2.83
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.40

finishing

Haugesund W+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Haugesund W or draw
38%
Haugesund W or Fortuna Ålesund W
82%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W
80%

Winning margin

Haugesund W wins by 2+
8%
Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Haugesund W 1+ goals
77%
Haugesund W 2+ goals
42%
Haugesund W 3+ goals
18%
Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
93%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
73%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Haugesund W (draw refunded)
24%
Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund W attack 1.50 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 2.40 + Haugesund W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Haugesund W scores more
20%
level
18%
Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
62%

Fortuna Ålesund W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toppserien: Haugesund W 3–1 Fortuna Ålesund W

Haugesund W beat Fortuna Ålesund W 3-1 in Toppserien on April 1, 2026.

The match was played at Haugesund Stadion in Haugesund.