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Haugesund W vs Fortuna Ålesund W — 1. Division Women 2022

Haugesund W
Haugesund W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
8/31/20251. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 16Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Haugesund W46%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Ålesund W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund W
1.76
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.38

Haugesund W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 48 away

creates per match

Haugesund W
2.27
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.67

allows per match

Haugesund W
1.09
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.25

finishing

Haugesund W+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Haugesund W or draw
70%
Haugesund W or Fortuna Ålesund W
77%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W
54%

Winning margin

Haugesund W wins by 2+
25%
Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Haugesund W 1+ goals
83%
Haugesund W 2+ goals
52%
Haugesund W 3+ goals
26%
Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
75%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
40%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Haugesund W (draw refunded)
61%
Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund W at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund W attack 2.27 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.76

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 1.67 + Haugesund W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haugesund W scores more
46%
level
23%
Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
30%

Haugesund W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Haugesund W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: Haugesund W 2–1 Fortuna Ålesund W

Haugesund W beat Fortuna Ålesund W 2-1 in 1. Division Women on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Haugesund.