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Haugesund vs Stabaek — 1. Division 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
Preview
14:00
Stabaek
Stabaek
10/3/20261. Division1. Division · Round 24Haugesund Stadion
Big match
56%
Haugesund
model favours
56%20%24%

Haugesund have scored in 11 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Haugesund56%
×Draw20%
Stabaek24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
2.33
Stabaek
1.49

Haugesund creates 56% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 53 away

creates per match

Haugesund
3.00
Stabaek
1.81

allows per match

Haugesund
1.17
Stabaek
1.66

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par
Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 70No: 3070%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Stabaek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
76%
Haugesund or Stabaek
80%
Draw or Stabaek
44%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
35%
Stabaek wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
90%
Haugesund 2+ goals
67%
Haugesund 3+ goals
41%
Stabaek 1+ goals
77%
Stabaek 2+ goals
44%
Stabaek 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
70%
Stabaek (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 3.00 + Stabaek defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.33

Stabaek attack 1.81 + Haugesund defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Haugesund scores more
56%
level
20%
Stabaek scores more
24%

Haugesund at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 82% of Haugesund’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Haugesund have won 3 in a row
  • Stabaek score first in only 25% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (82% and 65% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 82% of Haugesund’s matches
  • 65% of Stabaek’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Haugesund
WWLWW
Stabaek
WWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Haugesund host Stabaek

October 3, 2026: Haugesund take on Stabaek in 1. Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Haugesund host Stabaek at Haugesund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.