Haugesund 0–0 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stabaek

5/24/2021

Eliteserien · Round 4Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Haugesund39%

×Draw23%

Stabaek38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.63

Haugesund

1.65

Stabaek

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 7 away

1.14

creates per match

1.63

1.62

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Stabaek

2.15

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

62%

Haugesund or Stabaek

77%

Draw or Stabaek

61%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

20%

Stabaek wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

81%

Haugesund 2+ goals

49%

Haugesund 3+ goals

23%

Stabaek 1+ goals

80%

Stabaek 2+ goals

48%

Stabaek 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

51%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.65

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Haugesund scores more

39%

level

23%

Stabaek scores more

38%

Haugesund at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Sandberg

Stabaek · G

8.3

Match Events

54'

Thore Baardsen Pedersen

61'

Yaw Amankwah

69'

Bruno Leite← K. Krygård

69'

A. Stølås← N. Sandberg

74'

Kornelius Hansen

76'

A. Ndour← T. Pedersen

77'

Kosuke Kinoshita

78'

O. Khoblenko← K. Kinoshita

78'

M. Solbakken← H. Shala

84'

H. Geelmuyden← O. Edvardsen

84'

S. Wangberg← M. Solheim

90+2'

Sturla Ottesen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundStabaek

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots9

14Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots9

4On Target3

5Off Target3

2Blocked3

6Inside Box3

5Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

454Total Passes311

355Accurate Passes225

78%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4