Haugesund 3–0 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stabaek

Martin Samuelsen 84'

Alexander Stolaas 73'

Douglas Bergqvist 24'

4/22/2019

Eliteserien · Round 4Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Haugesund39%

×Draw23%

Stabaek38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.63

Haugesund

1.65

Stabaek

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 7 away

1.14

creates per match

1.63

1.62

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Stabaek

2.15

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.26scores less

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

62%

Haugesund or Stabaek

77%

Draw or Stabaek

61%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

20%

Stabaek wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

81%

Haugesund 2+ goals

49%

Haugesund 3+ goals

23%

Stabaek 1+ goals

80%

Stabaek 2+ goals

48%

Stabaek 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

51%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 32 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.65

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Haugesund scores more

39%

level

23%

Stabaek scores more

38%

Haugesund at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Alexander Stolaas

Haugesund · D

9.6

Match Events

22'

24'

40'

43'

43'

46'

Steinar Stromnes← Kristoffer Askildsen

53'

Fredrik Knudsen← Douglas Bergqvist

60'

Nikolaj Kirk← Emil Bohinen

62'

Kristoffer Velde← Thore Baardsen Pedersen

71'

Madis Vihmann

73'

Alexander Stolaas

78'

Martin Samuelsen← Torbjorn Kallevag

83'

Daniel Braaten← Hugo Vetlesen

84'

Martin Samuelsen↳ Alexander Stolaas

90'

Nikolaj Kirk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundStabaek

Overview

58%Possession42%

25Total Shots4

7Corners3

10Fouls14

Shots

25Total Shots4

7On Target1

13Off Target2

5Blocked1

12Inside Box3

13Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

441Total Passes329

326Accurate Passes204

74%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

–Red Cards1

1Offsides0