Haugesund 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sarpsborg 08 FF

4/30/2023

Eliteserien · Round 4Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Haugesund32%

×Draw24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.69

Haugesund

1.40

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.69

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

1.14

creates per match

1.76

1.62

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.76

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.67

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

56%

Haugesund or Sarpsborg 08 FF

76%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

68%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

14%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

75%

Haugesund 2+ goals

41%

Haugesund 3+ goals

17%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

82%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

50%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

42%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.67 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Haugesund scores more

32%

level

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

44%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Selvik

Haugesund · G

9.2

Match Events

50'

Christopher Baah

60'

M. Samuelsen← S. Diarra

60'

B. Njie← S. Liseth

64'

K. Opseth← S. Tibbling

67'

Søren Reese

68'

A. Pajaziti← V. Solheim

72'

M. Høyland← E. Wichne

86'

S. Tounekti← O. Krusnell

86'

M. Hope← M. Sande

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundSarpsborg

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots28

5Corners14

7Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots28

1On Target9

3Off Target11

2Blocked8

3Inside Box19

3Outside Box9

Passing

48%Possession52%

385Total Passes390

273Accurate Passes287

71%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

9Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1