Haugesund 3–1 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sarpsborg 08 FF

B. Njie 83'

M. Sande 45+2'

C. Zafeiris 27'

J. Soltvedt 18'

7/24/2022

Eliteserien · Round 15Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Haugesund32%

×Draw24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.69

Haugesund

1.40

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.69

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

1.14

creates per match

1.76

1.62

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.76

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.67

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

56%

Haugesund or Sarpsborg 08 FF

76%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

68%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

14%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

75%

Haugesund 2+ goals

41%

Haugesund 3+ goals

17%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

82%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

50%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

42%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.67 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Haugesund scores more

32%

level

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

44%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

M. Sande

Haugesund · M

8.5

Match Events

16'

Alexander Søderlund

18'

J. Soltvedt↳ J. Lindseth

20'

Martin Samuelsen

26'

Anton Skipper

27'

C. Zafeiris

45+2'

M. Sande↳ P. Therkildsen

56'

T. Pedersen← N. Walstad

56'

U. Fredriksen← P. Therkildsen

60'

Anton Skipper

60'

Anton Skipper

63'

E. Wichne← G. Molins

63'

M. Høyland← T. Heintz

70'

J. Holtan← A. Søderlund

76'

Anders Baertelsen

83'

Bilal Njie

83'

B. Njie↳ M. Sande

85'

J. Thomassen← J. Soltvedt

88'

H. Gong← M. Samuelsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundSarpsborg

Overview

33%Possession67%

11Total Shots14

6Corners10

6Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots14

7On Target2

3Off Target6

1Blocked6

5Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

278Total Passes563

184Accurate Passes468

66%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

4Offsides4