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Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
CANC
00:00
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
9/11/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 21Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Haugesund32%
×Draw24%
Sarpsborg 08 FF44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.69

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

creates per match

Haugesund
1.14
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.76

allows per match

Haugesund
1.62
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.67

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
56%
Haugesund or Sarpsborg 08 FF
76%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
68%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
14%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
75%
Haugesund 2+ goals
41%
Haugesund 3+ goals
17%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
82%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
50%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
42%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 31 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.67 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Haugesund scores more
32%
level
24%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
44%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Haugesund host Sarpsborg 08 FF

September 11, 2021: Haugesund take on Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Haugesund host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Haugesund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.