Haugesund 0–1 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Haugesund

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Molde

F. Aursnes 9'

3/18/2018

Eliteserien · Round 2Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Haugesund30%

×Draw25%

Molde45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.54

Haugesund

1.21

Molde

1.54

Molde creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 37 away

1.14

creates per match

1.47

1.62

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Molde

1.47

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Molde

1.29

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.26scores less

Molde-0.01on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

55%

Haugesund or Molde

75%

Draw or Molde

70%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

12%

Molde wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

70%

Haugesund 2+ goals

34%

Haugesund 3+ goals

12%

Molde 1+ goals

79%

Molde 2+ goals

45%

Molde 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

40%

Molde (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 32 matches

Molde away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Molde defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Molde attack 1.47 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Haugesund scores more

30%

level

25%

Molde scores more

45%

Molde at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

K. Haugen

Molde · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

F. Aursnes↳ M. Normann

56'

E. Håland← T. Amang

77'

S. Gregersen← V. Forren

85'

Mathias Antonsen Normann

86'

T. Svendsen← E. Hestad

88'

A. Ikedi← J. Nilsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundMolde

Overview

55%Possession45%

20Total Shots9

8Corners3

9Fouls18

Shots

20Total Shots9

6On Target5

7Off Target2

7Blocked2

12Inside Box7

8Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

406Total Passes341

268Accurate Passes211

66%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls18

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0