Haugesund 2–2 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kristiansund BK

N. Sandberg 70'

A. Ammitzbøll 47'

C. Psyché 73'

A. Askar 23'

6/24/2020

Eliteserien · Round 3Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Haugesund43%

×Draw25%

Kristiansund BK33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.35

Haugesund

1.57

Kristiansund BK

1.35

Haugesund creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

1.14

creates per match

1.09

1.62

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Kristiansund BK

1.09

allows per match

Haugesund

1.62

Kristiansund BK

2.00

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Haugesund-0.26scores less

Kristiansund BK-0.06on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

67%

Haugesund or Kristiansund BK

75%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

57%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

21%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

79%

Haugesund 2+ goals

46%

Haugesund 3+ goals

21%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

74%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

39%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

56%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 32 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kristiansund BK attack 1.09 + Haugesund defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Haugesund scores more

43%

level

25%

Kristiansund BK scores more

33%

Haugesund at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

N. Sandberg

Haugesund · M

8.5

Match Events

23'

A. Askar↳ A. Coly

36'

Erlend Sivertsen

38'

J. Nilsen← B. Karamoko

46'

Christophe Psyche

47'

A. Ammitzbøll↳ N. Sandberg

51'

Faris Pemi Moumbagna

56'

S. Sørli← F. Pemi

69'

P. Ulvestad← A. Askar

69'

F. Kastrati← E. Sivertsen

69'

L. Kalludra← O. Skarsem

70'

N. Sandberg↳ M. Desler

73'

C. Psyché

76'

Joakim Vaage Nilsen

78'

B. Sørmo← A. Hopmark

90+2'

K. Krygård← Bruno Leite

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundKristiansund

Overview

63%Possession37%

14Total Shots11

8Corners3

11Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots11

7On Target4

5Off Target6

2Blocked1

11Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

431Total Passes246

316Accurate Passes136

73%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1