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Haugesund vs Bryne — Eliteserien 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Bryne
Bryne
S. Diarra 8'
J. Ostrem 80'
K. Haland 73'
H. Larsen 6', 3'
11/30/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 30Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Haugesund28%
×Draw23%
Bryne49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
1.36
Bryne
1.86

Bryne creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Haugesund
0.73
Bryne
1.06

allows per match

Haugesund
2.67
Bryne
2.00

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par
Bryne+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Bryne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
51%
Haugesund or Bryne
77%
Draw or Bryne
72%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
12%
Bryne wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
74%
Haugesund 2+ goals
39%
Haugesund 3+ goals
16%
Bryne 1+ goals
84%
Bryne 2+ goals
55%
Bryne 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
36%
Bryne (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Bryne away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 0.73 + Bryne defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bryne attack 1.06 + Haugesund defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Haugesund scores more
28%
level
23%
Bryne scores more
49%

Bryne at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bryne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
H. LarsenBryneBryne · M
8.6

Match Events

3'
H. Larsen↳ E. Saunes
6'
H. Larsen↳ S. Bojadzic
8'
S. Diarra↳ T. Nyhammer
11'
Duarte MoreiraGoal cancelled
32'
F. A. Jakobsen← N. Hamalainen
41'
Lars Erik SødalGoal cancelled
46'
R. Thellufsen← A. Scriven
61'
J. Ostrem← D. Moreira
62'
J. Tveita← C. Landu-Landu
67'
M. Hope← C. Niyukuri
67'
W. Valenza← V. Solheim
73'
K. Haland←
73'
K. Haland
80'
J. Ostrem↳ K. Haland
82'
I. Camara← T. Nyhammer
82'
L. Eide← H. V. Karlsen
82'
I. Spiridonov← J. de Boer

Possession

50%Haugesund

Shots

6Haugesund

Pass accuracy

50%Haugesund

Statistics

HaugesundBryne
Overview
50%Possession50%
6Total Shots14
0.32Expected Goals (xG)2.04
2Corners8
6Fouls8
Shots
6Total Shots14
2On Target7
1Off Target4
3Blocked3
3Inside Box10
3Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
418Total Passes417
315Accurate Passes319
75%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls8
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Haugesund vs Bryne

Bryne beat Haugesund 4-1 in Eliteserien on November 30, 2025.

Goals: H. Larsen (3', 6'), S. Diarra (8'), K. Haland (73'), J. Ostrem (80').

Haugesund controlled possession (50%) and registered 6 shots to 14.

The match was played at Haugesund Stadion in Haugesund.