Haugesund 6–1 Aalesund: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Aalesund

S. Diarra 90+6'

P. Therkildsen 90+1'

K. Krygård 80'

A. Søderlund 38'

N. Hopland 11' (OG)

C. Niyukuri 7'

M. Diop 77'

10/28/2023

Eliteserien · Round 26Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Haugesund46%

×Draw23%

Aalesund31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.42

Haugesund

1.78

Aalesund

1.42

Haugesund creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 12 away

1.14

creates per match

1.20

1.64

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Haugesund

1.14

Aalesund

1.20

allows per match

Haugesund

1.64

Aalesund

2.42

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Haugesund-0.24scores less

Aalesund-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

69%

Haugesund or Aalesund

77%

Draw or Aalesund

54%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

25%

Aalesund wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

83%

Haugesund 2+ goals

53%

Haugesund 3+ goals

26%

Aalesund 1+ goals

76%

Aalesund 2+ goals

41%

Aalesund 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

60%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 30 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.14 + Aalesund defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

Aalesund attack 1.20 + Haugesund defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Haugesund scores more

46%

level

23%

Aalesund scores more

31%

Haugesund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

P. Therkildsen

Haugesund · D

8.3

Match Events

7'

C. Niyukuri↳ J. Eskesen

11'

N. HoplandOwn goal

38'

A. Søderlund↳ J. Eskesen

46'

M. Diop← M. Ramsland

51'

Amidou Diop

55'

Nikolai Soyset Hopland

61'

S. Diarra← A. Søderlund

61'

O. Krusnell← C. Niyukuri

62'

T. Nyhammer← J. Eskesen

68'

E. Moses← E. Segberg

71'

D. Huisman← Bruno Leite

75'

Magnus Christensen

76'

Sory Diarra

77'

M. Diop↳ M. Karlsbakk

80'

K. Krygård↳ P. Therkildsen

81'

S. Innvær← B. Njie

82'

K. Ødemarksbakken← M. Karlsbakk

90+7'

Sory Diarra

90+7'

Sory Diarra

90+1'

P. Therkildsen

90+6'

S. Diarra↳ K. Krygård

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundAalesund

Overview

53%Possession47%

19Total Shots8

2.02Expected Goals (xG)0.50

5Corners5

13Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots8

13On Target1

2Off Target3

4Blocked4

13Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

455Total Passes399

358Accurate Passes296

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides0

Eliteserien: Haugesund 6–1 Aalesund

Haugesund beat Aalesund 6-1 in Eliteserien on October 28, 2023.

Goals: C. Niyukuri (7'), N. Hopland (11' o.g.), A. Søderlund (38'), M. Diop (77'), K. Krygård (80'), P. Therkildsen (90+1'), S. Diarra (90+6').

Haugesund controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Haugesund.

Haugesund vs Aalesund — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Haugesund 6–1 Aalesund