Aalesund 1–2 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Aalesund

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Haugesund

K. Barmen 83'

B. Njie 90+1'

A. Ndour 81'

8/13/2022

Eliteserien · Round 18Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Aalesund52%

×Draw22%

Haugesund26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.40

Aalesund

2.04

Haugesund

1.40

Aalesund creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

1.73

creates per match

1.07

1.72

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Aalesund

1.73

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Aalesund

1.72

Haugesund

2.36

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Aalesund-0.44scores less

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

74%

Aalesund or Haugesund

78%

Draw or Haugesund

48%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

30%

Haugesund wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

87%

Aalesund 2+ goals

60%

Aalesund 3+ goals

33%

Haugesund 1+ goals

75%

Haugesund 2+ goals

41%

Haugesund 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

66%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.72 · 14 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.73 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.04

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Aalesund defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aalesund scores more

52%

level

22%

Haugesund scores more

26%

Aalesund at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Selvik

Haugesund · G

7.9

Match Events

26'

Peter Therkildsen

52'

K. Ødemarksbakken← A. Ammitzbøll

58'

Martin Samuelsen

68'

T. Kallevåg← S. Nordli

68'

F. Haugen← Nenass

70'

Søren Reese

76'

T. Pedersen← N. Walstad

76'

J. Eskesen← M. Sande

78'

Kevin Martin Krygard

80'

Anders Baertelsen

81'

A. Ndour↳ P. Therkildsen

83'

M. Christensen← K. Krygård

83'

K. Barmen↳ K. Ødemarksbakken

90+2'

Bilal Njie

90'

N. Hopland← D. Čanađija

90+2'

J. Holtan← A. Ndour

90+1'

B. Njie↳ C. Zafeiris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalesundHaugesund

Overview

57%Possession43%

22Total Shots14

6Corners6

13Fouls10

Shots

22Total Shots14

6On Target7

12Off Target4

4Blocked3

15Inside Box10

7Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

492Total Passes374

387Accurate Passes271

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls10

0Yellow Cards6

Eliteserien: Aalesund 1–2 Haugesund

Haugesund beat Aalesund 2-1 in Eliteserien on August 13, 2022.

Goals: A. Ndour (81'), K. Barmen (83'), B. Njie (90+1').

Aalesund controlled possession (57%) and registered 22 shots to 14.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.

Aalesund vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Aalesund 1–2 Haugesund