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Haugesund II vs Årdal — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Haugesund II
Haugesund II
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Årdal
Årdal
8/10/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 16Sparebanken Vest Arena Karmøy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Haugesund II62%
×Draw17%
Årdal21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund II
2.96
Årdal
1.73

Haugesund II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Haugesund II
2.00
Årdal
1.54

allows per match

Haugesund II
1.92
Årdal
3.92

finishing

Haugesund II+0.00on par
Årdal+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund II ↓

Årdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Haugesund II or draw
79%
Haugesund II or Årdal
83%
Draw or Årdal
38%

Winning margin

Haugesund II wins by 2+
42%
Årdal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Haugesund II 1+ goals
95%
Haugesund II 2+ goals
79%
Haugesund II 3+ goals
55%
Årdal 1+ goals
82%
Årdal 2+ goals
52%
Årdal 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Haugesund II (draw refunded)
74%
Årdal (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Årdal away — creates 1.54, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund II attack 2.00 + Årdal defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 2.96

Årdal attack 1.54 + Haugesund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Haugesund II scores more
62%
level
17%
Årdal scores more
21%

Haugesund II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Haugesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haugesund II vs Årdal

Haugesund II beat Årdal 6-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Sparebanken Vest Arena Karmøy in Veavågen.