Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Årdal vs Haugesund II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Årdal
Årdal
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Haugesund II
Haugesund II
T. Hovland 90+4'
E. Mittet 49'
O. Ostvik 41'
6/15/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 11Jotun Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Årdal38%
×Draw19%
Haugesund II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Årdal
2.38
Haugesund II
2.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Årdal
2.85
Haugesund II
2.00

allows per match

Årdal
3.08
Haugesund II
1.92

finishing

Årdal+0.00on par
Haugesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Årdal ↓

Haugesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Årdal or draw
57%
Årdal or Haugesund II
81%
Draw or Haugesund II
62%

Winning margin

Årdal wins by 2+
22%
Haugesund II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Årdal 1+ goals
91%
Årdal 2+ goals
68%
Årdal 3+ goals
42%
Haugesund II 1+ goals
92%
Haugesund II 2+ goals
72%
Haugesund II 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Årdal (draw refunded)
47%
Haugesund II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Årdal at home — creates 2.85, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

Haugesund II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Årdal attack 2.85 + Haugesund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.38

Haugesund II attack 2.00 + Årdal defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Årdal scores more
38%
level
19%
Haugesund II scores more
43%

Haugesund II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Haugesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
O. Ostvik
49'
E. Mittet
90+4'
T. Hovland

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Årdal vs Haugesund II

Årdal beat Haugesund II 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 15, 2024.

Goals: O. Ostvik (41'), E. Mittet (49'), T. Hovland (90+4').

The match was played at Jotun Stadion in Øvre Årdal.