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Hatta SC vs Emirates Club — Division 1 2025

Hatta SC
Hatta SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Emirates Club
Emirates Club
A. Karimi 59'
R. Silva 9'
Fabinho 45'
10/26/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 5Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hatta SC45%
×Draw25%
Emirates Club30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hatta SC
1.56
Emirates Club
1.23

Hatta SC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hatta SC
1.87
Emirates Club
1.53

allows per match

Hatta SC
0.93
Emirates Club
1.24

finishing

Hatta SC+0.00on par
Emirates Club+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatta SC ↓

Emirates Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hatta SC or draw
70%
Hatta SC or Emirates Club
75%
Draw or Emirates Club
55%

Winning margin

Hatta SC wins by 2+
23%
Emirates Club wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hatta SC 1+ goals
79%
Hatta SC 2+ goals
46%
Hatta SC 3+ goals
21%
Emirates Club 1+ goals
71%
Emirates Club 2+ goals
35%
Emirates Club 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hatta SC (draw refunded)
60%
Emirates Club (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatta SC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Emirates Club away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatta SC attack 1.87 + Emirates Club defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

Emirates Club attack 1.53 + Hatta SC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hatta SC scores more
45%
level
25%
Emirates Club scores more
30%

Hatta SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hatta SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
R. Silva
45'
Fabinho
59'
A. Karimi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hatta SC vs Emirates Club

Hatta SC beat Emirates Club 2-1 in Division 1 on October 26, 2025.

Goals: R. Silva (9'), Fabinho (45'), A. Karimi (59').

The match was played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Stadium in Hatta.