Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Emirates Club vs Hatta SC — Division 1 2025

Emirates Club
Emirates Club
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hatta SC
Hatta SC
Y. Mohamed 86'
A. Gassama 48'
Marcelo Freitas 34'
3/9/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 20Emirates Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Emirates Club25%
×Draw22%
Hatta SC53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emirates Club
1.25
Hatta SC
1.91

Hatta SC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Emirates Club
1.50
Hatta SC
2.13

allows per match

Emirates Club
1.69
Hatta SC
1.00

finishing

Emirates Club+0.00on par
Hatta SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emirates Club ↓

Hatta SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Emirates Club or draw
47%
Emirates Club or Hatta SC
78%
Draw or Hatta SC
75%

Winning margin

Emirates Club wins by 2+
10%
Hatta SC wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Emirates Club 1+ goals
71%
Emirates Club 2+ goals
36%
Emirates Club 3+ goals
13%
Hatta SC 1+ goals
85%
Hatta SC 2+ goals
57%
Hatta SC 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Emirates Club (draw refunded)
32%
Hatta SC (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emirates Club at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Hatta SC away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emirates Club attack 1.50 + Hatta SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hatta SC attack 2.13 + Emirates Club defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Emirates Club scores more
25%
level
22%
Hatta SC scores more
53%

Hatta SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hatta SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Marcelo Freitas
48'
A. Gassama
86'
Y. Mohamed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Emirates Club 2–1 Hatta SC

Emirates Club beat Hatta SC 2-1 in Division 1 on March 9, 2025.

Goals: Marcelo Freitas (34'), A. Gassama (48'), Y. Mohamed (86').

The match was played at Emirates Club Stadium in Ras al-Khaimah.