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Hatta SC vs Baynounah SC — Division 1 2018

Hatta SC
Hatta SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Baynounah SC
Baynounah SC
3/5/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 24Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hatta SC70%
×Draw18%
Baynounah SC12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hatta SC
2.29
Baynounah SC
0.85

Hatta SC creates 169% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

creates per match

Hatta SC
1.83
Baynounah SC
0.69

allows per match

Hatta SC
1.02
Baynounah SC
2.75

finishing

Hatta SC+0.00on par
Baynounah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatta SC ↓

Baynounah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hatta SC or draw
88%
Hatta SC or Baynounah SC
82%
Draw or Baynounah SC
30%

Winning margin

Hatta SC wins by 2+
46%
Baynounah SC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hatta SC 1+ goals
90%
Hatta SC 2+ goals
66%
Hatta SC 3+ goals
40%
Baynounah SC 1+ goals
57%
Baynounah SC 2+ goals
21%
Baynounah SC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hatta SC (draw refunded)
85%
Baynounah SC (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatta SC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Baynounah SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatta SC attack 1.83 + Baynounah SC defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.29

Baynounah SC attack 0.69 + Hatta SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hatta SC scores more
70%
level
18%
Baynounah SC scores more
12%

Hatta SC at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hatta SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hatta SC vs Baynounah SC

Hatta SC beat Baynounah SC 2-1 in Division 1 on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium in Hatta.