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Baynounah SC vs Hatta SC — Division 1 2018

Baynounah SC
Baynounah SC
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 4
Hatta SC
Hatta SC
10/23/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 7Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Baynounah SC20%
×Draw19%
Hatta SC61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baynounah SC
1.31
Hatta SC
2.37

Hatta SC creates 81% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 67 away

creates per match

Baynounah SC
1.38
Hatta SC
2.04

allows per match

Baynounah SC
2.69
Hatta SC
1.24

finishing

Baynounah SC+0.00on par
Hatta SC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baynounah SC ↓

Hatta SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Baynounah SC or draw
39%
Baynounah SC or Hatta SC
81%
Draw or Hatta SC
80%

Winning margin

Baynounah SC wins by 2+
8%
Hatta SC wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Baynounah SC 1+ goals
73%
Baynounah SC 2+ goals
38%
Baynounah SC 3+ goals
14%
Hatta SC 1+ goals
91%
Hatta SC 2+ goals
68%
Hatta SC 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Baynounah SC (draw refunded)
25%
Hatta SC (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baynounah SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.69 · 16 matches

Hatta SC away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baynounah SC attack 1.38 + Hatta SC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hatta SC attack 2.04 + Baynounah SC defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Baynounah SC scores more
20%
level
19%
Hatta SC scores more
61%

Hatta SC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hatta SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baynounah SC vs Hatta SC

Hatta SC beat Baynounah SC 6-1 in Division 1 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium in Hatta.