Hatayspor 0–3 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Hatayspor

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Erzurumspor FK

C. Sylla 88'

E. Tozlu 62', 35'

10/31/2025

1. Lig · Round 12Mersin Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Hatayspor39%

×Draw28%

Erzurumspor FK34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HataysporExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.15

Hatayspor

1.25

Erzurumspor FK

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 110 away

1.43

creates per match

1.16

1.15

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Hatayspor

1.43

Erzurumspor FK

1.16

allows per match

Hatayspor

1.15

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hatayspor+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatayspor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hatayspor or draw

66%

Hatayspor or Erzurumspor FK

72%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

61%

Winning margin

Hatayspor wins by 2+

17%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hatayspor 1+ goals

71%

Hatayspor 2+ goals

36%

Hatayspor 3+ goals

13%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

68%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

32%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hatayspor (draw refunded)

53%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatayspor at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatayspor attack 1.43 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Hatayspor defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hatayspor scores more

39%

level

28%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

34%

Hatayspor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hatayspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Tozlu

Erzurumspor FK · F

9.3

Match Events

14'

Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi

16'

Kamil Ahmet ÇörekçiCard reviewed

25'

S. Temel← A. Yildiz

27'

Selimcan Temel

35'

E. Tozlu

37'

Martín RodríguezGoal confirmed

38'

Ünal-Emre Durmushan

42'

Giovanni Crociata

48'

Benhur Keser

57'

Mustafa FettahogluPenalty cancelled

58'

A. Kabak← G. Crociata

58'

62'

77'

77'

78'

S. M. Aydin← C. Strandberg

78'

B. Sarka← U. Durmushan

80'

F. Ozhan← M. Rodriguez

88'

M. Sen← Y. A. Buz

88'

E. Aydemir←

88'

C. Sylla↳ F. Ozhan

90'

Görkem Sağlam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HataysporErzurumspor

Overview

34%Possession66%

5Total Shots23

1Corners8

6Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots23

0On Target9

3Off Target8

2Blocked6

3Inside Box10

2Outside Box13

Passing

34%Possession66%

307Total Passes594

228Accurate Passes536

74%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

6Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Hatayspor vs Erzurumspor FK

Erzurumspor FK beat Hatayspor 3-0 in 1. Lig on October 31, 2025.

Goals: E. Tozlu (35', 62'), C. Sylla (88').

Erzurumspor FK controlled possession (66%) and registered 23 shots to 5.

The match was played at Mersin Stadyumu in Mersin.

Hatayspor vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hatayspor vs Erzurumspor FK