Erzurumspor FK vs Hatayspor — 1. Lig 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 54+ matches
Erzurumspor FK52%
Hatayspor24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Erzurumspor FK creates 58% more chances
Season form · 108 home / 54 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Erzurumspor FK ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches
Hatayspor away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.70 · 54 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Hatayspor defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67
Hatayspor attack 1.19 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Erzurumspor FK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Denizlispor
GenclerbirligiHatayspor
Osmanlıspor
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Adana Demirspor
Altınordu
Ümraniyespor
Boluspor
Altay
İstanbulspor
Adanaspor
Giresunspor
Eskişehirspor
Balıkesirspor
Afjet Afyonspor
Elazığspor
Kardemir KarabuksporIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Erzurumspor FK host Hatayspor on Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 10:30. The match is part of the 1. Lig 2018/2019 season.
1. Lig: Erzurumspor FK 3–0 Hatayspor
Erzurumspor FK beat Hatayspor 3-0 in 1. Lig on March 15, 2026.
Goals: R. Chaadaev (30' o.g.), M. Rodriguez (43'), G. Crociata (90').
Erzurumspor FK controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 5.
The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.