Hatayspor 1–2 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

Hatayspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Başakşehir

R. Dadashov 73'

O. Kemen 69'

K. Piątek 5'

4/27/2024

League #203 · Round 34Mersin Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hatayspor30%

×Draw22%

Başakşehir48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HataysporExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.95

Hatayspor

1.52

Başakşehir

1.95

Başakşehir creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.80

creates per match

1.50

2.40

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Hatayspor

1.80

Başakşehir

1.50

allows per match

Hatayspor

2.40

Başakşehir

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hatayspor+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatayspor ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Hatayspor or draw

52%

Hatayspor or Başakşehir

78%

Draw or Başakşehir

70%

Winning margin

Hatayspor wins by 2+

14%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Hatayspor 1+ goals

78%

Hatayspor 2+ goals

45%

Hatayspor 3+ goals

20%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

86%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

58%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Hatayspor (draw refunded)

39%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatayspor at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatayspor attack 1.80 + Başakşehir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Başakşehir attack 1.50 + Hatayspor defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hatayspor scores more

30%

level

22%

Başakşehir scores more

48%

Başakşehir at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Şengezer

Başakşehir · G

8.6

Match Events

5'

K. Piątek↳ D. Pelkas

23'

Emirhan İlkhan

25'

Souza

46'

O. Kemen← Souza

61'

Rigoberto Rivas

63'

Léo Duarte

64'

R. Dadashov← Ö. Beyaz

64'

H. Dervişoğlu← Joelson Fernandes

67'

P. Keny← D. Pelkas

67'

O. Ergün← E. İlkhan

69'

O. Kemen

73'

R. Dadashov↳ R. Rivas

82'

Rui Pedro← K. Çörekçi

82'

Lucas Lima← Ö. Şahiner

85'

H. Güreler← B. Özcan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HataysporBaşakşehir

Overview

56%Possession44%

22Total Shots7

1.29Expected Goals (xG)0.67

6Corners0

12Fouls20

Shots

22Total Shots7

7On Target4

9Off Target2

6Blocked1

9Inside Box3

13Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

444Total Passes366

354Accurate Passes285

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

League #203: Hatayspor 1–2 Başakşehir

Başakşehir beat Hatayspor 2-1 in League #203 on April 27, 2024.

Goals: K. Piątek (5'), O. Kemen (69'), R. Dadashov (73').

Hatayspor controlled possession (56%) and registered 22 shots to 7.

The match was played at Mersin Stadyumu in Mersin.

Hatayspor vs Başakşehir — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Hatayspor 1–2 Başakşehir