Başakşehir 1–1 Hatayspor: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hatayspor

J. Opoku 120+10' (pen)

B. Özcan 120+8' (pen)

João Figueiredo 120+4' (pen)

P. Keny 23'

D. Sinik 120+7' (pen)

C. Massanga 120+5' (pen), 58'

2/7/2024

Türkiye Kupası · Round of 16Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Başakşehir60%

×Draw23%

Hatayspor17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this matchHatayspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.83

Başakşehir

1.77

Hatayspor

0.83

Başakşehir creates 113% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

2.33

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.33

Hatayspor

1.00

allows per match

Başakşehir

0.67

Hatayspor

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Hatayspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Hatayspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

83%

Başakşehir or Hatayspor

77%

Draw or Hatayspor

40%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

34%

Hatayspor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

83%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

53%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

26%

Hatayspor 1+ goals

56%

Hatayspor 2+ goals

20%

Hatayspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

78%

Hatayspor (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Hatayspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.33 + Hatayspor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hatayspor attack 1.00 + Başakşehir defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Başakşehir scores more

60%

level

23%

Hatayspor scores more

17%

Başakşehir at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

P. Keny↳ E. İlkhan

35'

Recep Burak Yılmaz

39'

Mahmut Tekdemir

46'

G. Sağlam← M. Boudjemaa

46'

C. Strandberg← Joelson Fernandes

58'

C. Massanga↳ A. Hodžić

68'

Görkem Sağlam

71'

Jerome Opoku

74'

F. Dele-Bashiru← A. Hodžić

76'

D. Türüç← S. Gürler

77'

O. Ergün← O. Kemen

77'

Léo Duarte← M. Abeid

77'

B. Özcan← M. Tekdemir

85'

F. Ghoulam← C. Sertel

87'

João Figueiredo← D. Aleksić

90+1'

D. Sinik← R. Dadashov

99'

K. Piątek← Léo Duarte

112'

G. Kilama← K. Alıcı

116'

Doğukan Sinik

120+3'

Lucas Lima

120+1'

R. RivasMissed penalty

120+2'

K. PiątekMissed penalty

120+3'

G. SağlamMissed penalty

120+4'

João FigueiredoPenalty

120+5'

C. MassangaPenalty

120+6'

D. TürüçMissed penalty

120+7'

D. SinikPenalty

120+8'

B. ÖzcanPenalty

120+9'

C. StrandbergMissed penalty

120+10'

J. OpokuPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BaşakşehirHatayspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots9

8Corners5

18Fouls21

Shots

14Total Shots9

4On Target3

7Off Target4

3Blocked2

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls21

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1