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Hatayspor vs Başakşehir — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Hatayspor
Hatayspor
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Başakşehir
Başakşehir
1/24/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 8th FinalsAntakya Atatürk Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hatayspor47%
×Draw24%
Başakşehir29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hatayspor
1.71
Başakşehir
1.31

Hatayspor creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hatayspor
2.27
Başakşehir
1.54

allows per match

Hatayspor
1.07
Başakşehir
1.15

finishing

Hatayspor+0.00on par
Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hatayspor ↓

Başakşehir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hatayspor or draw
71%
Hatayspor or Başakşehir
76%
Draw or Başakşehir
53%

Winning margin

Hatayspor wins by 2+
25%
Başakşehir wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hatayspor 1+ goals
82%
Hatayspor 2+ goals
51%
Hatayspor 3+ goals
24%
Başakşehir 1+ goals
73%
Başakşehir 2+ goals
38%
Başakşehir 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hatayspor (draw refunded)
61%
Başakşehir (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hatayspor at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hatayspor attack 2.27 + Başakşehir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.71

Başakşehir attack 1.54 + Hatayspor defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hatayspor scores more
47%
level
24%
Başakşehir scores more
29%

Hatayspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hatayspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hatayspor vs Başakşehir

Hatayspor beat Başakşehir 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on January 24, 2019.

The match was played at Antakya Atatürk Stadı in Hatay.