Hässleholms IF 3–2 Almeboda Linneryd

Hässleholms IF

FT

3 – 2

Almeboda Linneryd

8/8/2020

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Östra Götaland - 3Österås IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hässleholms IF53%

×Draw22%

Almeboda Linneryd25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hässleholms IFExpected goals in this matchAlmeboda Linneryd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.31

Hässleholms IF

1.97

Almeboda Linneryd

1.31

Hässleholms IF creates 50% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 19 away

2.10

creates per match

1.63

1.00

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Hässleholms IF

2.10

Almeboda Linneryd

1.63

allows per match

Hässleholms IF

1.00

Almeboda Linneryd

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hässleholms IF+0.00on par

Almeboda Linneryd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hässleholms IF ↓

Almeboda Linneryd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hässleholms IF or draw

75%

Hässleholms IF or Almeboda Linneryd

78%

Draw or Almeboda Linneryd

47%

Winning margin

Hässleholms IF wins by 2+

30%

Almeboda Linneryd wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hässleholms IF 1+ goals

86%

Hässleholms IF 2+ goals

58%

Hässleholms IF 3+ goals

31%

Almeboda Linneryd 1+ goals

73%

Almeboda Linneryd 2+ goals

38%

Almeboda Linneryd 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)

67%

Almeboda Linneryd (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hässleholms IF at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Almeboda Linneryd away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hässleholms IF attack 2.10 + Almeboda Linneryd defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.97

Almeboda Linneryd attack 1.63 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hässleholms IF scores more

53%

level

22%

Almeboda Linneryd scores more

25%

Hässleholms IF at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hässleholms IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff