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Almeboda Linneryd vs Hässleholms IF — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Almeboda Linneryd
Almeboda Linneryd
FT
1 – 2
Hässleholms IF
Hässleholms IF
9/21/2019Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Round 23Linneryds IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Almeboda Linneryd23%
×Draw23%
Hässleholms IF54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almeboda Linneryd
1.15
Hässleholms IF
1.86

Hässleholms IF creates 62% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 72 away

creates per match

Almeboda Linneryd
1.20
Hässleholms IF
1.82

allows per match

Almeboda Linneryd
1.90
Hässleholms IF
1.10

finishing

Almeboda Linneryd+0.00on par
Hässleholms IF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeboda Linneryd ↓

Hässleholms IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Almeboda Linneryd or draw
46%
Almeboda Linneryd or Hässleholms IF
77%
Draw or Hässleholms IF
77%

Winning margin

Almeboda Linneryd wins by 2+
9%
Hässleholms IF wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Almeboda Linneryd 1+ goals
68%
Almeboda Linneryd 2+ goals
32%
Almeboda Linneryd 3+ goals
11%
Hässleholms IF 1+ goals
84%
Hässleholms IF 2+ goals
55%
Hässleholms IF 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Almeboda Linneryd (draw refunded)
30%
Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeboda Linneryd at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Hässleholms IF away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeboda Linneryd attack 1.20 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Hässleholms IF attack 1.82 + Almeboda Linneryd defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Almeboda Linneryd scores more
23%
level
23%
Hässleholms IF scores more
54%

Hässleholms IF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hässleholms IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almeboda Linneryd vs Hässleholms IF

Hässleholms IF beat Almeboda Linneryd 2-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Linneryds IP in Linneryd.