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Hassia Bingen vs Eintracht Trier — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Hassia Bingen
Hassia Bingen
FT
1 – 2
Eintracht Trier
Eintracht Trier
10/9/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 11Stadion am Hessenhaus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hassia Bingen21%
×Draw20%
Eintracht Trier59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassia Bingen
1.33
Eintracht Trier
2.33

Eintracht Trier creates 75% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hassia Bingen
1.56
Eintracht Trier
2.71

allows per match

Hassia Bingen
1.94
Eintracht Trier
1.09

finishing

Hassia Bingen+0.00on par
Eintracht Trier+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassia Bingen ↓

Eintracht Trier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hassia Bingen or draw
41%
Hassia Bingen or Eintracht Trier
80%
Draw or Eintracht Trier
79%

Winning margin

Hassia Bingen wins by 2+
9%
Eintracht Trier wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Hassia Bingen 1+ goals
74%
Hassia Bingen 2+ goals
38%
Hassia Bingen 3+ goals
15%
Eintracht Trier 1+ goals
90%
Eintracht Trier 2+ goals
67%
Eintracht Trier 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Hassia Bingen (draw refunded)
26%
Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassia Bingen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Eintracht Trier away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassia Bingen attack 1.56 + Eintracht Trier defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Eintracht Trier attack 2.71 + Hassia Bingen defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hassia Bingen scores more
21%
level
20%
Eintracht Trier scores more
59%

Eintracht Trier at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Hassia Bingen 1–2 Eintracht Trier

Eintracht Trier beat Hassia Bingen 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion am Hessenhaus in Bingen.