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Eintracht Trier vs Hassia Bingen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Eintracht Trier
Eintracht Trier
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Hassia Bingen
Hassia Bingen
3/5/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Moselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Eintracht Trier68%
×Draw18%
Hassia Bingen14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Trier
2.37
Hassia Bingen
0.96

Eintracht Trier creates 147% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

creates per match

Eintracht Trier
3.00
Hassia Bingen
1.40

allows per match

Eintracht Trier
0.53
Hassia Bingen
1.73

finishing

Eintracht Trier+0.00on par
Hassia Bingen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Trier ↓

Hassia Bingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Eintracht Trier or draw
86%
Eintracht Trier or Hassia Bingen
82%
Draw or Hassia Bingen
32%

Winning margin

Eintracht Trier wins by 2+
46%
Hassia Bingen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Eintracht Trier 1+ goals
91%
Eintracht Trier 2+ goals
68%
Eintracht Trier 3+ goals
42%
Hassia Bingen 1+ goals
62%
Hassia Bingen 2+ goals
25%
Hassia Bingen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)
83%
Hassia Bingen (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Trier at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Hassia Bingen away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Trier attack 3.00 + Hassia Bingen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.37

Hassia Bingen attack 1.40 + Eintracht Trier defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Eintracht Trier scores more
68%
level
18%
Hassia Bingen scores more
14%

Eintracht Trier at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Trier vs Hassia Bingen

Eintracht Trier beat Hassia Bingen 4-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Moselstadion in Trier.