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Hassania Agadir vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
12/13/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 14Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Hassania Agadir36%
×Draw30%
FUS Rabat34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.08
FUS Rabat
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.15
FUS Rabat
1.09

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
1.00
FUS Rabat
1.02

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
66%
Hassania Agadir or FUS Rabat
70%
Draw or FUS Rabat
64%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
14%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
66%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
29%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
10%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
65%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
28%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
51%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.15 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
36%
level
30%
FUS Rabat scores more
34%

Hassania Agadir at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Hassania Agadir 0–1 FUS Rabat

FUS Rabat beat Hassania Agadir 1-0 in Botola Pro on December 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.