FUS Rabat 2–1 Hassania Agadir: Result & Stats

FUS Rabat

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hassania Agadir

5/8/2025

Botola Pro · Round 29Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

FUS Rabat45%

×Draw30%

Hassania Agadir25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FUS RabatExpected goals in this matchHassania Agadir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.83

FUS Rabat

1.21

Hassania Agadir

0.83

FUS Rabat creates 46% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 121 away

1.26

creates per match

0.79

0.88

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

FUS Rabat

1.26

Hassania Agadir

0.79

allows per match

FUS Rabat

0.88

Hassania Agadir

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

Hassania Agadir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw

75%

FUS Rabat or Hassania Agadir

70%

Draw or Hassania Agadir

55%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

20%

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

70%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

34%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

12%

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals

56%

Hassania Agadir 2+ goals

20%

Hassania Agadir 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

64%

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 121 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.17 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.26 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Hassania Agadir attack 0.79 + FUS Rabat defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FUS Rabat scores more

45%

level

30%

Hassania Agadir scores more

25%

FUS Rabat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff