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Hassania Agadir vs FUS Rabat — Cup 2020

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabatadvanced
Y. Mehri 56'
M. Karnass 34'
H. Kameni 12'
S. Khorsa 2'
3/20/2022CupCup · Round of 16Stade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hassania Agadir21%
×Draw22%
FUS Rabat57%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.13
FUS Rabat
2.00

FUS Rabat creates 77% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.75
FUS Rabat
2.00

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
2.00
FUS Rabat
0.50

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
43%
Hassania Agadir or FUS Rabat
78%
Draw or FUS Rabat
79%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
8%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
68%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
31%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
11%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
86%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
59%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
27%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.75 + FUS Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

FUS Rabat attack 2.00 + Hassania Agadir defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
21%
level
22%
FUS Rabat scores more
57%

FUS Rabat at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
S. Khorsa
12'
H. Kameni
34'
M. Karnass
56'
Y. Mehri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Hassania Agadir 1–3 FUS Rabat

FUS Rabat beat Hassania Agadir 3-1 in Cup on March 20, 2022.

Goals: S. Khorsa (2'), H. Kameni (12'), M. Karnass (34'), Y. Mehri (56').

The match was played at Stade d'Agadir in Agadir.