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Hassania Agadir vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola Pro 2025

Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
6/9/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 30Stade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hassania Agadir56%
×Draw26%
Chabab RIF Hoceima19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hassania Agadir
1.54
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.77

Hassania Agadir creates 100% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hassania Agadir
1.15
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.53

allows per match

Hassania Agadir
1.00
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.93

finishing

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hassania Agadir ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hassania Agadir or draw
81%
Hassania Agadir or Chabab RIF Hoceima
74%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
44%

Winning margin

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
29%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
79%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
45%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
20%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
54%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
18%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
75%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hassania Agadir at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hassania Agadir attack 1.15 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.53 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hassania Agadir scores more
56%
level
26%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
19%

Hassania Agadir at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hassania Agadir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hassania Agadir vs Chabab RIF Hoceima

Hassania Agadir beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 1-0 in Botola Pro on June 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade d'Agadir.