Chabab RIF Hoceima 1–0 Hassania Agadir

Chabab RIF Hoceima

FT

1 – 0

Hassania Agadir

1/28/2019

Botola Pro · Round 15Stade Mimoun Al Arsi (Al Hoceima)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima38%

×Draw28%

Hassania Agadir34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab RIF HoceimaExpected goals in this matchHassania Agadir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.13

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.22

Hassania Agadir

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 121 away

1.27

creates per match

0.79

1.47

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.27

Hassania Agadir

0.79

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.47

Hassania Agadir

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Hassania Agadir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw

66%

Chabab RIF Hoceima or Hassania Agadir

72%

Draw or Hassania Agadir

62%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+

16%

Hassania Agadir wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals

70%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals

34%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals

12%

Hassania Agadir 1+ goals

68%

Hassania Agadir 2+ goals

31%

Hassania Agadir 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)

53%

Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.17 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.27 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Hassania Agadir attack 0.79 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more

38%

level

28%

Hassania Agadir scores more

34%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff