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HAŠK vs Bistra — League #216 2026

HAŠK
HAŠK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bistra
Bistra
11/23/2024League #216League #216 · Center - 13ŠRC Peščenica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HAŠK59%
×Draw24%
Bistra18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HAŠK
1.71
Bistra
0.81

HAŠK creates 111% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

creates per match

HAŠK
1.75
Bistra
0.33

allows per match

HAŠK
1.29
Bistra
1.67

finishing

HAŠK+0.00on par
Bistra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HAŠK ↓

Bistra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

HAŠK or draw
82%
HAŠK or Bistra
76%
Draw or Bistra
41%

Winning margin

HAŠK wins by 2+
33%
Bistra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

HAŠK 1+ goals
82%
HAŠK 2+ goals
51%
HAŠK 3+ goals
24%
Bistra 1+ goals
56%
Bistra 2+ goals
19%
Bistra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

HAŠK (draw refunded)
77%
Bistra (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HAŠK at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Bistra away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HAŠK attack 1.75 + Bistra defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bistra attack 0.33 + HAŠK defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

HAŠK scores more
59%
level
24%
Bistra scores more
18%

HAŠK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "HAŠK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #216: HAŠK 1–0 Bistra

HAŠK beat Bistra 1-0 in League #216 on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at ŠRC Peščenica in Zagreb.