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Bistra vs HAŠK — League #216 2026

Bistra
Bistra
FT
2 – 1
HAŠK
HAŠK
10/14/2023League #216League #216 · Center - 10Stadion Donja Bistra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bistra72%
×Draw18%
HAŠK9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bistra
2.08
HAŠK
0.58

Bistra creates 259% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bistra
2.40
HAŠK
0.76

allows per match

Bistra
0.40
HAŠK
1.76

finishing

Bistra+0.00on par
HAŠK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bistra ↓

HAŠK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bistra or draw
91%
Bistra or HAŠK
82%
Draw or HAŠK
28%

Winning margin

Bistra wins by 2+
47%
HAŠK wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bistra 1+ goals
87%
Bistra 2+ goals
61%
Bistra 3+ goals
34%
HAŠK 1+ goals
44%
HAŠK 2+ goals
12%
HAŠK 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bistra (draw refunded)
89%
HAŠK (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bistra at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

HAŠK away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bistra attack 2.40 + HAŠK defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.08

HAŠK attack 0.76 + Bistra defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bistra scores more
72%
level
18%
HAŠK scores more
9%

Bistra at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Bistra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bistra 2 – 1 HAŠK

Bistra beat HAŠK 2-1 in League #216 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Donja Bistra in Donja Bistra.