Hartlepool 2–0 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Hartlepool

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rochdale

J. Hamilton 64'

J. Umerah 54'

1/21/2023

League Two · Round 28The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hartlepool40%

×Draw28%

Rochdale33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HartlepoolExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.13

Hartlepool

1.28

Rochdale

1.13

Hartlepool creates 13% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 56 away

1.20

creates per match

0.95

1.30

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Hartlepool

1.20

Rochdale

0.95

allows per match

Hartlepool

1.30

Rochdale

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw

67%

Hartlepool or Rochdale

72%

Draw or Rochdale

60%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+

18%

Rochdale wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals

72%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

37%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

14%

Rochdale 1+ goals

68%

Rochdale 2+ goals

31%

Rochdale 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

55%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hartlepool scores more

40%

level

28%

Rochdale scores more

33%

Hartlepool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Killip

Hartlepool · G

7.7

Match Events

36'

51'

54'

59'

60'

S. Graham← D. Lloyd-McGoldrick

60'

S. Quigley← C. John

60'

J. Ball← I. Henderson

61'

R. Menayese← J. Sterry

64'

67'

75'

82'

86'

87'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HartlepoolRochdale

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots10

8Corners4

12Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots10

7On Target3

4Off Target6

6Blocked1

11Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

331Total Passes293

212Accurate Passes169

64%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards2

2Offsides4

Match Recap: Hartlepool vs Rochdale

Hartlepool beat Rochdale 2-0 in League Two on January 21, 2023.

Goals: J. Umerah (54'), J. Hamilton (64').

Hartlepool controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.

Hartlepool vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hartlepool vs Rochdale