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Hartlepool vs Bradford — League Two 2018

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Bradford
Bradford
D. Ferguson 17'
A. Cook 90+2', 65'
S. Banks 5'
8/20/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 5The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool36%
×Draw27%
Bradford37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.22
Bradford
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 139 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.20
Bradford
1.15

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.30
Bradford
1.24

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
63%
Hartlepool or Bradford
73%
Draw or Bradford
64%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
15%
Bradford wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
70%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
34%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
12%
Bradford 1+ goals
71%
Bradford 2+ goals
35%
Bradford 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
50%
Bradford (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bradford attack 1.15 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hartlepool scores more
36%
level
27%
Bradford scores more
37%

Bradford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
A. CookBradfordBradford · F
8.7

Match Events

5'
S. Banks↳ H. Chapman
17'
D. Ferguson↳ J. Hastie
45+2'
Richard Smallwood
54'
Scott Banks
64'
K. Harratt← S. Banks
65'
A. Cook↳ K. Harratt
72'
J. Hamilton← M. Sylla
85'
J. Grey← W. McDonald
88'
J. Young← L. Angol
88'
Y. Songo'o← A. Gilliead
90+2'
A. Cook↳ Y. Songo'o

Possession

51%Hartlepool

Shots

6Hartlepool

Pass accuracy

49%Hartlepool

Statistics

HartlepoolBradford
Overview
51%Possession49%
6Total Shots13
3Corners7
7Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots13
2On Target6
2Off Target3
2Blocked4
3Inside Box10
3Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
446Total Passes417
336Accurate Passes322
75%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls9
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

League Two: Hartlepool 1–3 Bradford

Bradford beat Hartlepool 3-1 in League Two on August 20, 2022.

Goals: S. Banks (5'), D. Ferguson (17'), A. Cook (65', 90+2').

Hartlepool controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.