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Hartlepool vs Bradford — League Two 2018

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bradford
Bradford
Y. Songo'o 76'
M. Foulds 70'
3/15/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 37The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool36%
×Draw27%
Bradford37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.22
Bradford
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 139 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.20
Bradford
1.15

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.30
Bradford
1.24

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
63%
Hartlepool or Bradford
73%
Draw or Bradford
64%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
15%
Bradford wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
70%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
34%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
12%
Bradford 1+ goals
71%
Bradford 2+ goals
35%
Bradford 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
50%
Bradford (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bradford attack 1.15 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hartlepool scores more
36%
level
27%
Bradford scores more
37%

Bradford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
M. FouldsBradfordBradford · D
8.3

Match Events

66'
I. Fletcher← J. Grey
67'
N. Delfouneso← G. Evans
70'
M. Foulds↳ C. Cooke
76'
J. Walker← E. Watt
76'
Y. Songo'o↳ C. Cooke
77'
O. Bogle← M. Carver
81'
Timi Odusina
83'
C. Lavery← D. Pereira
87'
Caolan Lavery
87'
T. Crawford← M. Smith

Possession

47%Hartlepool

Shots

12Hartlepool

Pass accuracy

48%Hartlepool

Statistics

HartlepoolBradford
Overview
47%Possession53%
12Total Shots10
4Corners1
13Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots10
3On Target5
4Off Target2
5Blocked3
6Inside Box7
6Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
467Total Passes531
369Accurate Passes452
79%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Hartlepool vs Bradford

Bradford beat Hartlepool 2-0 in League Two on March 15, 2022.

Goals: M. Foulds (70'), Y. Songo'o (76').

Bradford controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.