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Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion — USL Championship 2026

Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
3/23/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 3Trinity Health Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Hartford Athletic40%
×Draw24%
Birmingham Legion36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartford Athletic
1.54
Birmingham Legion
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 116 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hartford Athletic
1.51
Birmingham Legion
1.39

allows per match

Hartford Athletic
1.50
Birmingham Legion
1.57

finishing

Hartford Athletic+0.00on par
Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartford Athletic ↓

Birmingham Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hartford Athletic or draw
64%
Hartford Athletic or Birmingham Legion
76%
Draw or Birmingham Legion
60%

Winning margin

Hartford Athletic wins by 2+
20%
Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hartford Athletic 1+ goals
79%
Hartford Athletic 2+ goals
45%
Hartford Athletic 3+ goals
20%
Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
76%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
42%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)
53%
Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartford Athletic at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.50 · 116 matches

Birmingham Legion away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartford Athletic attack 1.51 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Birmingham Legion attack 1.39 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hartford Athletic scores more
40%
level
24%
Birmingham Legion scores more
36%

Hartford Athletic at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hartford Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Hartford Athletic 1–0 Birmingham Legion

Hartford Athletic beat Birmingham Legion 1-0 in USL Championship on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Trinity Health Stadium in Hartford.