Birmingham Legion 1–4 Hartford Athletic

Birmingham Legion

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Hartford Athletic

8/10/2025

USL Championship · Round 23Protective Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Birmingham Legion47%

×Draw24%

Hartford Athletic29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Birmingham LegionExpected goals in this matchHartford Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.23

Birmingham Legion

1.63

Hartford Athletic

1.23

Birmingham Legion creates 33% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 113 away

1.33

creates per match

1.25

1.21

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Birmingham Legion

1.33

Hartford Athletic

1.25

allows per match

Birmingham Legion

1.21

Hartford Athletic

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Hartford Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

Hartford Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw

71%

Birmingham Legion or Hartford Athletic

76%

Draw or Hartford Athletic

53%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+

24%

Hartford Athletic wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals

80%

Birmingham Legion 2+ goals

48%

Birmingham Legion 3+ goals

22%

Hartford Athletic 1+ goals

71%

Hartford Athletic 2+ goals

35%

Hartford Athletic 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)

62%

Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

Hartford Athletic away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.93 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hartford Athletic attack 1.25 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more

47%

level

24%

Hartford Athletic scores more

29%

Birmingham Legion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff