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Hart Acedemy vs BST Galaxy — GFA League 2020

Hart Acedemy
Hart Acedemy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
BST Galaxy
BST Galaxy
3/6/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hart Acedemy38%
×Draw31%
BST Galaxy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hart Acedemy
1.07
BST Galaxy
0.94

Hart Acedemy creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hart Acedemy
1.13
BST Galaxy
1.04

allows per match

Hart Acedemy
0.83
BST Galaxy
1.02

finishing

Hart Acedemy+0.00on par
BST Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hart Acedemy ↓

BST Galaxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hart Acedemy or draw
69%
Hart Acedemy or BST Galaxy
69%
Draw or BST Galaxy
62%

Winning margin

Hart Acedemy wins by 2+
15%
BST Galaxy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hart Acedemy 1+ goals
66%
Hart Acedemy 2+ goals
29%
Hart Acedemy 3+ goals
9%
BST Galaxy 1+ goals
61%
BST Galaxy 2+ goals
24%
BST Galaxy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hart Acedemy (draw refunded)
55%
BST Galaxy (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hart Acedemy at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

BST Galaxy away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hart Acedemy attack 1.13 + BST Galaxy defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

BST Galaxy attack 1.04 + Hart Acedemy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hart Acedemy scores more
38%
level
31%
BST Galaxy scores more
31%

Hart Acedemy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hart Acedemy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hart Acedemy vs BST Galaxy

Hart Acedemy and BST Galaxy drew 1-1 in GFA League on March 6, 2026.