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BST Galaxy vs Hart Acedemy — GFA League 2020

BST Galaxy
BST Galaxy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hart Acedemy
Hart Acedemy
3/1/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

BST Galaxy37%
×Draw30%
Hart Acedemy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BST Galaxy
1.08
Hart Acedemy
0.98

BST Galaxy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

BST Galaxy
0.93
Hart Acedemy
1.07

allows per match

BST Galaxy
0.89
Hart Acedemy
1.23

finishing

BST Galaxy+0.00on par
Hart Acedemy+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BST Galaxy ↓

Hart Acedemy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

BST Galaxy or draw
68%
BST Galaxy or Hart Acedemy
70%
Draw or Hart Acedemy
63%

Winning margin

BST Galaxy wins by 2+
15%
Hart Acedemy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

BST Galaxy 1+ goals
66%
BST Galaxy 2+ goals
29%
BST Galaxy 3+ goals
10%
Hart Acedemy 1+ goals
62%
Hart Acedemy 2+ goals
26%
Hart Acedemy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

BST Galaxy (draw refunded)
54%
Hart Acedemy (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BST Galaxy at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Hart Acedemy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BST Galaxy attack 0.93 + Hart Acedemy defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hart Acedemy attack 1.07 + BST Galaxy defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

BST Galaxy scores more
37%
level
30%
Hart Acedemy scores more
32%

BST Galaxy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "BST Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: BST Galaxy 0–0 Hart Acedemy

BST Galaxy and Hart Acedemy drew 0-0 in GFA League on March 1, 2026.