Harrogate Town 6–1 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

6 – 1

HT: 5 – 0

Scunthorpe

D. Orsi 83' (pen)

J. Muldoon 45+2', 8'

A. Pattison 30', 14'

J. Diamond 16'

H. Davis 79'

10/9/2021

League Two · Round 11EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Harrogate Town46%

×Draw25%

Scunthorpe29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.15

Harrogate Town

1.53

Scunthorpe

1.15

Harrogate Town creates 33% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 64 away

1.19

creates per match

0.83

1.47

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.19

Scunthorpe

0.83

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.47

Scunthorpe

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

71%

Harrogate Town or Scunthorpe

75%

Draw or Scunthorpe

54%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

23%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

78%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

45%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

20%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

68%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

32%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

62%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

46%

level

25%

Scunthorpe scores more

29%

Harrogate Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Harrogate Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Pattison

Harrogate Town · M

9.2

Match Events

8'

J. Muldoon

14'

A. Pattison↳ J. Muldoon

16'

J. Diamond

19'

Alfie Beestin

30'

A. Pattison↳ J. Diamond

38'

L. Kerry← J. Falkingham

45+2'

J. Muldoon↳ A. Pattison

57'

D. Orsi← J. Muldoon

57'

S. Power← A. Pattison

61'

A. Jarvis← R. Loft

67'

J. Hallam← J. Scrimshaw

69'

79'

80'

81'

81'

83'

D. OrsiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateScunthorpe

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots11

3Corners5

8Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots11

9On Target1

1Off Target3

4Blocked7

10Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

441Total Passes262

316Accurate Passes124

72%Pass Accuracy47%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1