Harrogate Town 2–5 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Scunthorpe

C. Hall 90+2'

J. Muldoon 35'

A. Jarvis 89'

R. Loft 74'

Abobaker Eisa 63' (pen), 41'

E. Onariase 16'

12/1/2020

League Two · Round 15CNG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Harrogate Town46%

×Draw25%

Scunthorpe29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.15

Harrogate Town

1.53

Scunthorpe

1.15

Harrogate Town creates 33% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 64 away

1.19

creates per match

0.83

1.47

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.19

Scunthorpe

0.83

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.47

Scunthorpe

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

71%

Harrogate Town or Scunthorpe

75%

Draw or Scunthorpe

54%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

23%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

78%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

45%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

20%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

68%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

32%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

62%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

46%

level

25%

Scunthorpe scores more

29%

Harrogate Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Harrogate Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Abobaker Eisa

Scunthorpe · M

8.6

Match Events

16'

E. Onariase↳ Abobaker Eisa

35'

J. Muldoon↳ J. Lawlor

41'

Abobaker Eisa↳ J. McAtee

46'

B. Kiernan← C. Kirby

63'

Abobaker EisaPenalty

68'

74'

75'

75'

78'

89'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateScunthorpe

Overview

52%Possession48%

7Total Shots14

2Corners8

15Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots14

3On Target6

2Off Target2

2Blocked6

4Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

364Total Passes318

219Accurate Passes195

60%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls13

1Offsides1