Harrogate Town 1–2 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fleetwood Town

A. Marsh 81'

M. Virtue-Thick 90'

C. Evans 45'

1/27/2026

League Two · Round 29Exercise Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Harrogate Town36%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.38

Harrogate Town

1.35

Fleetwood Town

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

1.23

1.53

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.20

Fleetwood Town

1.23

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.53

Fleetwood Town

1.50

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Harrogate Town-0.64scores less

Fleetwood Town-0.05on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

62%

Harrogate Town or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

64%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

16%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

74%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

39%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

15%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

75%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

40%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

49%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 9 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.50 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.20 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fleetwood Town attack 1.23 + Harrogate Town defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

36%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

38%

Fleetwood Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Powell

Fleetwood Town · M

8.3

Match Events

14'

M. Virtue-Thick← H. Neal

24'

Bryn Morris

45'

C. Evans↳ J. Powell

46'

M. Oxley← H. Gray

56'

Will Davies

62'

T. Mullarkey← S. Rooney

67'

L. Cass← L. Gibson

67'

A. Marsh← G. Thomson

75'

Chanse Headman

77'

O. Devonport← W. Davies

77'

K. Hughes← J. Powell

78'

Conor Haughey

81'

C. McAleny← E. Sutton

81'

A. Marsh↳ M. Oxley

85'

Elliot Bonds

90'

M. Virtue-Thick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateFleetwood

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots15

6Corners5

9Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots15

4On Target5

9Off Target6

4Blocked4

12Inside Box9

5Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

369Total Passes322

266Accurate Passes200

72%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1