Fleetwood Town 3–2 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Harrogate Town

R. Graydon 78'

E. Bonds 72'

W. Davies 31'

J. Muldoon 56'

W. Burrell 16'

10/11/2025

League Two · Round 12Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Fleetwood Town59%

×Draw22%

Harrogate Town19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.02

Fleetwood Town

1.98

Harrogate Town

1.02

Fleetwood Town creates 94% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.61

creates per match

1.13

0.91

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.61

Harrogate Town

1.13

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.91

Harrogate Town

2.35

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.43scores less

Harrogate Town-0.46scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

81%

Fleetwood Town or Harrogate Town

78%

Draw or Harrogate Town

41%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

36%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

86%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

59%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

31%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

64%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

27%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

76%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.61 + Harrogate Town defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.98

Harrogate Town attack 1.13 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

59%

level

22%

Harrogate Town scores more

19%

Fleetwood Town at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. Bonds

Fleetwood Town · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

31'

56'

61'

61'

R. Graydon← J. Norwood

71'

M. Helm← M. Virtue-Thick

71'

C. Evans← W. Davies

72'

E. Bonds↳ C. Evans

78'

R. Graydon↳ C. Evans

88'

L. Sutton← B. Fox

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodHarrogate

Overview

33%Possession67%

16Total Shots13

4Corners3

13Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots13

5On Target5

4Off Target3

7Blocked5

10Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

290Total Passes595

174Accurate Passes469

60%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Offsides1