Harrogate Town 2–1 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Accrington ST

12/26/2023

League Two · Round 24EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Harrogate Town41%

×Draw26%

Accrington ST34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.27

Harrogate Town

1.42

Accrington ST

1.27

Harrogate Town creates 12% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 69 away

1.19

creates per match

1.06

1.47

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.19

Accrington ST

1.06

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.47

Accrington ST

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

66%

Harrogate Town or Accrington ST

74%

Draw or Accrington ST

59%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

19%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

76%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

41%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

17%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

72%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

36%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

55%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Accrington ST defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Accrington ST attack 1.06 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

41%

level

26%

Accrington ST scores more

34%

Harrogate Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Harrogate Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff