Accrington ST 1–0 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Harrogate Town

12/29/2025

League Two · Round 23The Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Accrington ST41%

×Draw27%

Harrogate Town32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.17

Accrington ST

1.37

Harrogate Town

1.17

Accrington ST creates 17% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 138 away

1.30

creates per match

1.11

1.23

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.30

Harrogate Town

1.11

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.23

Harrogate Town

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

68%

Accrington ST or Harrogate Town

73%

Draw or Harrogate Town

59%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

19%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

75%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

40%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

16%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

69%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

33%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

56%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.30 + Harrogate Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

Harrogate Town attack 1.11 + Accrington ST defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Accrington ST scores more

41%

level

27%

Harrogate Town scores more

32%

Accrington ST at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff