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Haro Deportivo vs Cenicero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cenicero
Cenicero
4/24/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 29Estadio Municipal El Mazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Haro Deportivo72%
×Draw18%
Cenicero11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haro Deportivo
2.26
Cenicero
0.73

Haro Deportivo creates 210% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Haro Deportivo
1.52
Cenicero
0.33

allows per match

Haro Deportivo
1.12
Cenicero
3.00

finishing

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par
Cenicero+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haro Deportivo ↓

Cenicero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Haro Deportivo or draw
89%
Haro Deportivo or Cenicero
82%
Draw or Cenicero
28%

Winning margin

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
48%
Cenicero wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
89%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
66%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
39%
Cenicero 1+ goals
52%
Cenicero 2+ goals
17%
Cenicero 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
87%
Cenicero (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haro Deportivo at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.12 · 81 matches

Cenicero away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haro Deportivo attack 1.52 + Cenicero defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.26

Cenicero attack 0.33 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Haro Deportivo scores more
72%
level
18%
Cenicero scores more
11%

Haro Deportivo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haro Deportivo vs Cenicero

Haro Deportivo beat Cenicero 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Mazo in Haro.